Nancy Channel Allocation Calculator

Based on 27,475 Zigpoll responses (last 30 days). Adjust total budget, channel %s, or WOM attribution model — see how everything shifts.

📋 Decision Log — 6-Month Path to $9M @ 20% EBIT

Sequential plan: lift ROAS first (Months 1-3), then layer spend (Months 4-6). Cannot scale spend until ROAS hits 2.1×+.

Month	Core Moves	Operational / COGS work	Success Criteria (end of month)	Targets
Month 1 CUT + LAUNCH	• Cut Meta -$630K (kill bottom 30% of ad sets, NOT tweak) • Sideshift +$70K → $150K total (target CPM < $1) • Hold Google/Amazon/Snap unchanged • Set up weekly CPM + ROAS dashboard	• Returns audit by agent (find bad agents) • Identify top 3 return SKUs for QC • Lock manufacturing pricing review (target -2pp COGS) • Tool consolidation audit (Klaviyo/Yotpo/Zigpoll)	• ROAS lifts 1.85 → 1.95× • Sideshift CPM holds <$1 • Returns <2.2% • No revenue loss >10%	Revenue: $5.7M Spend: $2.7M EBIT: $500K (9%) Daily EBIT: $17K
Month 2 VALIDATE + TEST	• Validate ROAS lift to 2.0×+ • +$30K Google competitor conquesting only (Rose/Satisfyer/Lelo) • Launch tests: TikTok Ads $1K/day, Snapchat $1K/day, AppLovin $1K/day (=$90K total) • Sideshift hold at $150K, prove CPM still <$1	• Negotiate manufacturing volume discount (COGS 32% → 30%) • Returns process redesign (agent guidelines) • Klaviyo flow optimization (target +20% email ROAS) • Implement Zigpoll daily auto-report	• ROAS 2.0-2.05× • Each test channel: 60-day CPA < $55 • COGS 32% → 30% • Returns 2.0%	Revenue: $6.0M Spend: $2.8M EBIT: $680K (11%) Daily EBIT: $23K ✓
Month 3 PRUNE + SCALE WINNERS	• Cut losing test channels (any <1.5× ROAS by Day 60) • 2-3× winners from TT/Snap/AppLovin tests • Sideshift try $200K if CPM still <$1 • Scale Manus/Zenify advertorial buys (these convert 15-30%)	• Returns rate 2.0% → 1.8% • CS automation (Gorgias AI flows) • Fulfillment renegotiation • Hire 2nd Creator PM	• ROAS 2.10-2.15× • Returns <1.8% • At least 1 test channel proven (>1.8× ROAS at $2K/day) • Sideshift CPM at $200K spend < $1.10	Revenue: $6.5M Spend: $3.0M EBIT: $850K (13%) Daily EBIT: $28K
Month 4 LAYER SPEND	• Add +$300K spend, only to channels w/ proven marginal ROAS > 2.0× • Scale Manus/Zenify spend by +$100K (29.68% CR is gold) • Re-introduce Meta carefully (+$100K to top-decile adsets only) • Push best test channel to $3K/day	• Begin organic engine builds (hire social manager) • Email/SMS scaling (Klaviyo flows revised) • Test Reddit promoted posts ($30K) • Press / PR retainer increase	• ROAS holds 2.05-2.10× with bigger budget • Revenue +15-20% MoM • New customer CPA < $45 • EBIT stays > 14%	Revenue: $7.4M Spend: $3.3M EBIT: $1.04M (14%) Daily EBIT: $35K
Month 5 PUSH UPSIDE	• Add +$300K spend, mix-weighted to proven channels • Sideshift scale toward $250K (only if CPM still <$1.20) • Podcast partnerships 2-3 host-reads/mo (+$40K) • PR push capitalizing on creator content moments	• Organic team in place (1 PM + 1 content) • COGS validate at 28-30% • Returns <1.5% • LTV cohort review (90-day retention)	• ROAS 2.15-2.25× • Revenue $8M+ • EBIT > 15% • Returns <1.5%	Revenue: $8.2M Spend: $3.6M EBIT: $1.35M (16%) Daily EBIT: $45K
Month 6 LAND $9M	• Final +$200K spend layer to land $9M revenue • Optimal mix: $2.1M Meta + $200K TT + $250K Sideshift + $400K Google + $300K Snap/AppLovin/YT/Reddit + $200K Podcast/Press + $100K test budget • All channels at validated marginal ROAS > 2.0× • Lock in Q4 budget commitments	• Returns ≤ 1.5% • COGS at 28% • Full ops dashboard automated • CS at 80% AI-handled • Quarterly business review	• $9M monthly revenue • EBIT ≥ 18% ($1.62M) • Daily EBIT ≥ $54K • ROAS ≥ 2.25× • Returns < 1.5%	Revenue: $9.0M Spend: $4.0M EBIT: $1.62M (18%) Daily EBIT: $54K 🎯

🎯 The 6-month math: $400K → $1.62M monthly EBIT = +$1.22M/mo on +$3M revenue. EBIT grew 4× while revenue grew 1.5×. That's the compounding of: (1) cut bad spend, (2) lift mix-weighted ROAS, (3) drop COGS, (4) layer growth on healthy unit economics.

🚨 Kill criteria — abort or hold at each gate:
• End of Month 2: If ROAS still < 1.95× → pause all incremental, deeper Meta cut
• End of Month 3: If Sideshift CPM > $1.30 → cap Sideshift, redirect to Manus paid amplification
• End of Month 4: If EBIT < 12% → halt spend layering, hold for another month
• Any month: If returns rate > 2.5% → freeze growth, fix supply chain first

📐 Spend Ceiling Framework — Where We Are vs Where We're Going

ROAS scales inversely with revenue (more spend = lower marginal ROAS, fixed overhead $550K, 20% target EBIT). Use this to set hard ad-spend ceilings. Ad Spend here = PAID MEDIA only (not creator content or organic).

🟦 Where We Are (Current Reality)

Edit your actual daily numbers — calculator computes ROAS + checks vs framework target

Daily Revenue

Daily Ad Spend

🟢 Where We Want to Go (Target)

Framework assumptions

From Nancy framework: ROAS = Revenue / Ad Spend, where Ad Spend = paid media only. Fixed monthly overhead = $550K. Target EBIT = 20% of revenue. COGS implied ~32% of revenue. Daily figures = monthly / 30. Higher revenue → more spend → lower marginal ROAS (diminishing returns).

Total monthly marketing budget

$3,000,000/month · $100,000/day

Allocation preset

Adjusted for diminishing returns on Meta + branded search defense on Google + scale-up on under-indexed TikTok

🗣️ Word-of-Mouth Attribution Model

WOM is 10.9% of attribution (3,013 buyers/month). But it doesn't come from nowhere — it's amplified by paid channels. Assign what % of WOM each channel deserves credit for below. The default model assumes most WOM is downstream of Meta + creator content + TikTok virality. Editing here recalculates the Amplified Attribution column in the table.

Total WOM credit allocated: 100%

Channel Allocation

Direct Attribution + WOM Credit (amplified) Your spend

Channel	Attr%	+ WOM	% Budget	$/Month	Cap	Target ROAS	B%/P%	Eff (amp)
TOTAL	100.0%	100.0%	100.0% ✓	$3,000,000	—	—	—	—

How to read this

Direct Attribution % — what buyers said in the survey. Fixed.
Amplified Attribution % = direct + the channel's share of WOM (you set the model above). Captures the "this channel drives word-of-mouth" effect.
% of Budget / $ Spend — what you allocate. Synced both ways.
Direct Efficiency = Direct Attr% ÷ Spend%. Honest but doesn't credit WOM amplification.
Amplified Efficiency = Amplified Attr% ÷ Spend%. Credits the channel for the WOM it generates. Higher = better value.
≥2.0 great 1.2-2.0 good 0.8-1.2 ok 0.5-0.8 watch <0.5 over

👁️ Eyeball Factory — Short-Form Creator Content Engine

The reach machine: paid creators producing short-form TT + Reels content. Hard target: sub-$1 CPM blended. At sub-$1, this engine is 15-25× cheaper reach than Meta — the most efficient impression you can buy. Above $1, the arbitrage collapses. Track CPM, total reach (impressions/mo), and ROAS as the core KPIs.

Target eyeball factory spend: Auto-apply CPM saturation curve

Saturation: at sub-$1 CPM today ($150K), you're cherry-picking top creators. Scaling to $500K requires deeper creator pool + geo diversification (LATAM, SEA) to hold sub-$1.

Engine	$/Month	$/Day	CPM ($)	Est. Reach/mo	Target ROAS	Brand %	Notes
TOTAL CREATOR	—	—	—	—	—	—

🌱 Organic / Owned Engines

These are channels Nancy owns — organic social, email, UGC, PR. They're mostly brand by nature but DO drive measurable sales (their attribution shows up inside the paid channels' counts). Add the real monthly cost (team time + tools + content + incentives). These sit on top of the $3M paid budget — they're a separate marketing investment that shifts your true brand:performance ratio.

Engine	$/Month	$/Day	Target ROAS	Brand %	Perf %	Notes
TOTAL ORGANIC	—	—	—	—	—

Brand vs Performance Split (Paid + Organic Combined)

Each channel's spend has a brand component (awareness, long-term equity) and performance component (direct response, short-term sales). Adjust the Brand % column above to reflect what mix you're actually running in each channel. Industry benchmark for DTC at scale: ~60% performance / 40% brand (Les Binet / IPA research). Below 30% brand = under-investing in long-term growth.

Total Performance

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Total Brand

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Perf : Brand ratio

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DTC benchmark: 60:40

Total marketing investment

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paid + organic

Performance

Brand

Daily / Weekly / Monthly Spend

📱 Meta Ads (FB + IG combined)

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Growth (TikTok+Reddit+YouTube)

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Defense (Google)

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Brand/WOM amplifiers (Podcast+Press)

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Who's it for? (30d)

Recipient	Count	%

How long known Nancy? (30d)

Window	Count	%

Why try it? (30d, single-motive)

Reason	Count	%

What to launch next? (30d, single-pick)

Product	Count	%